Chart Pack #2 - Ad Infinitum

20 interesting charts - no bias, no agenda, no bs

Mar 2, 2023

#1 - US Home Prices

In an addendum to the narrative I presented last week in “The Eye of the Storm”, US home prices are declining at a pace unseen before.

#2 - US Home Prices vs. US Rents

Home prices soared significantly more than rents. The growth ratio is declining rapidly, confirming that home prices will keep correcting (as per the previous chart). For that gap to close to a more “acceptable” range, we are talking about a 30% to 40% decline in home prices.

#3 - US Port Activity

US port activity has been sinking since September… pun intended!

#4 - US Freight Carloads

While freight carloads are flirting with contraction…

#5 - US Yield Curve

The US yield curve is deeply inverted – the most in the past forty years. How much farther can it go without breaking the system?

#6 - US Yield Curve vs Fed Interest Payments

Meanwhile, government interest payments in Q2 2022 were $852B. Either the Fed keeps going, and government interest payments keep rising, adding pressure onto government financials, or the Fed reverses course earlier than expected to ease the government’s burden, at the risk of losing the little credibility they have left!

#7 - US Recession

Update on the most expected recession in history: Yep, still happening!!!

#8 - S&P 500 vs Recession

This is a gentle reminder that in the past the S&P 500 always bottomed during or after a recession, NEVER before. Of course, it could be different this time!

#9 - China Real Estate Sector

The real estate sector is not only in trouble in the US, it looks dire in China as well …

#10 - China Shadow Banking

Chinese shadow banking financing growth is about to go positive for the first time since 2018, in combination with government efforts to boost liquidity. This event could positively affect stock prices in general, and maybe it could trigger the infamous China reopening boost we have not yet seen…

#11 - South Korea Exports

South Korean exports have been contracting very sharply since October. Never a good sign to see this from a major manufacturing country.

#12 - G4 Central Banks Balance Sheet

Central banks might be done with tightening their balance sheets – it looks like it has found a bottom.

#13 - Global Crypto Adoption

Crypto adoption is on track to reach 1 billion users by mid-2024. Here it is compared to internet adoption to reach the same milestone. By the way, this does not necessarily mean the prices will only go up, but rather that the technology can be used and scaled, most likely in a multi-chain form.

#14 - Global Copper Demand

Global copper demand cyclicality suggests that demand growth may weaken in 2023. If accurate, we could expect the copper price to erase its early 2023 gains (+10.7% at the time of writing).

#15 - Global Commodity Prices

The entire commodity market looks set to weaken.

#16 - German PPI

German PPI is falling back rapidly. Waiting patiently for inflation to follow…

#17 - European Manufacturing Confidence

Eurozone manufacturing confidence is fading away and could be an early sign of more contraction…

#18 - Eurozone Exports

Especially if Eurozone exports keep slowing down…

#19 - ISM vs. European Exports

ISM is leading European exports by three months, suggesting a sharp contraction is highly possible in Europe.

#20 - ISM vs. TMK Global Economic Impulse

Historical correlation with my Global Economic Impulse Index (built with 900 different data series) suggests that ISM is right where it should be, making it a valid proxy data series for measuring global activity.

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