Chart Pack #1 - Everything is Awesome!
Chart Pack #1 - Everything is Awesome!
Every month I will bring you charts that interest me the most. No narrative, no agenda, no bias, just great charts with some concise analysis.
Welcome to the very first issue of The King’s Pick.
As I’ve said on more than one occasion previously, “A picture is worth a thousand words.”
This is the place where I will make that real: no protracted narrative, no bias, just outstanding charts and concise analysis that will make you think. These might be charts that I find on social media, in other publications, or produce myself.
They do not have to be related; they only need to have a WOWZER! effect.
I want them to pique your interest, get you going. In a nutshell, I want them to make you feel something!
And who knows, sometimes they might even be worth trading.
Buckle up; let’s go.
#1 - US Federal Spending vs Revenue 2022
I’m not sure which is more surprising, that corporate income taxes are only around $400 billion for a country that produces $23 trillion in GDP, or that interest paid on debt is higher than corporate income taxes.
As the Baby Boomers retire, I’ll let you guess which way defense spending, veterans benefits, Social Security, and Medicare and Medicaid are heading!
#2 - US Money Market Funds Total Net Assets
This one could be either very good or very bad.
The good part is that nearly $5 trillion in dry powder is ready to be deployed — enough to fuel an insane bull run…
The bad part: If the trend keeps going up, it means liquidity is being sucked out, which could send markets to new lows.
#3 - Global Liquidity Index
Based on this composite liquidity index by CrossBorder Capital, it looks like liquidity is about to come back, reflecting the good part from the chart above…
#4 - US Commercial Bank Liabilities Deposits YoY%
US bank deposits are melting like snow in the spring sun. I wonder what would happen now if the Fed were to run a stress test…
#5 - US Current Expenditures Interest Payments YoY%
When debt is coming back at you, this is what you get. This is probably nothing, right?
#6 - Median Age of US Homebuyers
The median age of US homebuyers is up seven years since the GFC. I expect this trend to get worse due to the shape of US demographics…
Source: Deutsche Bank via @texasrunnerDFW
#7 - US Housing Confidence
Especially while housing sentiment is so bad for both builders and buyers…
#8 - US Unemployment Rate vs TMK Global Unemployment Impulse
Although the latest data print was positive for the US job market, my global unemployment impulse composite suggests that unemployment in the US is about to move up…
#9 - Gold Price
Gold looks very sexy. It will pull back first; but on the next resistance retest, we might get a clean breakout…
#10 - The US Dollar
Very interesting setup in the DXY — I think we get a pullback first…
#11 - US Dollar Speculator Net-Positioning
Speculators' positioning suggests that DXY has not found its local bottom yet…
#13 - Semiconductors vs Nasdaq
Semiconductors are front-running the Nasdaq; that does look like a clean breakout. However, the Nasdaq has to catch up to confirm a bullish scenario…
#14 - Microsoft vs Google
Artificial Intelligence is the hottest of hot topics, thanks to ChatGPT and Microsoft integration. This is the beginning of a great battle between Microsoft and Google.
We are on the eve of a massive technological transformation.
#15 - Artificial Intelligence Market Size Forecast
And huge opportunities…
#16 - LeBron James all-time scoring record
As a passionate sports fan, it seems only right to me to end this week’s King’s Pick by paying tribute to LeBron James's fascinating career, as he just became the NBA all-time leading scorer with 38,390 points (and counting), a record held by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for forty years. Huge respect from one king to another!
